MRO spare parts demand forecasting

Predict which spare parts your fleet needs, before the shortage grounds a jet

Aerotrax reads your aircraft removal history and component wear patterns to forecast spare parts demand by tail number and part class. Your planners stock the right part before it becomes an AOG.

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Part	30d	60d	90d	AOG Risk
LDG-STRUT-B737	2	5	9	HIGH
APU-AIR-FLTR	4	7	14	MED
BRAKE-ASSY-MLG	1	3	6	MED
HYD-PUMP-EDP	0	1	3	LOW

$150K to $500K

avg direct cost of a single AOG event

62%

of unscheduled removals involve fewer than 3 part types

34%

fewer emergency parts orders in early-access pilot benchmark (based on internal benchmark, 3 anonymized fleet datasets)

Wear-Pattern Analysis

Aerotrax maps component degradation curves from your removal task cards and flight-hour data to identify which parts are tracking toward threshold. The model accounts for tail-to-tail variation, not just fleet-average wear rates.

AOG Event Clustering

Historical unscheduled ground events are clustered by fleet type, route environment, and maintenance base to surface which parts carry the highest ground-risk weight.

Tail-Level Demand Forecast

Weekly demand forecast by individual tail registration, not just fleet averages, because operators know tail-to-tail variation is real and fleet-average forecasts miss it.

Connect your removal history

Aerotrax ingests task card data, unscheduled removal logs, and flight cycle and flight hour records. CSV upload or direct connector. No integration team required to start.

Aerotrax trains on your fleet

The forecasting model is calibrated to your aircraft types, route environment, and maintenance intervals, not a generic baseline that treats all operators the same.

Weekly forecast in your inbox

Parts planners receive a ranked demand report by part number and tail, with 30/60/90-day horizon and AOG risk flags. Actionable before the Thursday purchase order cutoff.

From our early-access program

We were carrying the wrong rotables for months. Aerotrax flagged three parts we were consistently understocking, within two weeks of acting on the forecast, we avoided what would have been a 12-hour AOG delay.

Marcus T., Parts Planning Lead, regional MRO operator. Early-access participant.

34% fewer emergency parts orders

Based on Aerotrax internal benchmark across 3 anonymized early-access fleet datasets

See what your fleet data reveals

We run a free 30-day pilot on your own removal history. No integration required to start.

Request your pilot Questions? Email [email protected]